The KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs

Navigating the China-Australia-USA Trilateral Dynamics: Trade, Diplomacy, and Military Alliances in the Pacific

Syed Raiyan Amir

Senior Research Associate at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA), Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Abstract

This paper examines the complex trilateral dynamics between Australia, China and the USA in the Pacific region, focusing on trade, diplomacy, and military alliances. Drawing on a conceptual framework that considers Australia as a rational actor, China’s policy as driven by economic determinism, and the USA’s as influenced by realism, the study dives into the strategic partnership between Australia and the USA, Chinese economic and military presence, and the rivalry between the USA and China. It explores the impact of extra-regional actors on regional tensions, including Australia’s declining economy due to prior trade tensions with China. It analyzes Australia’s shifting economic focus from the USA to China, as evidenced by Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to China. The paper also examines China’s strategy of neutralizing Australia to deter the USA in the Pacific. Finally, it discusses the changing landscape of Australia-US relations, characterized by conflicting ideologies and policies. The paper concludes by envisioning the future course of the region, with Australia seeking economic prospects, China prioritizing regional security, and the USA asserting regional dominance.

Keywords: Australia, China, USA, Pacific Region, Trade, Diplomacy, Military Alliances, Economic Determinism, Extra-regional Actors, Rivalry, Strategic Partnership, Regional Tensions, Declining Economy, Shifting Economic Focus, Australia-China Relations, Pacific Security.