In a moment that has captured the attention of Canadians and the political world alike, Justin Trudeau, the 23rd prime minister of Canada, has announced his resignation after weeks of intense pressure. His decision to step down marks the end of a significant chapter in Canadian political history. Having been at the helm since 2015, Trudeau led the Liberal Party of Canada back to power from a period of political dormancy, initiating sweeping reforms and navigating through a series of domestic and international crises. But after nearly a decade in power, his leadership has faced increasing scrutiny, ultimately leading to his announcement that he will resign both as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party.
Although Trudeau has confirmed that he will remain in office until a new leader is selected, his resignation raises numerous questions about the future direction of his party, the upcoming federal election, and the broader political landscape in Canada. His statement on 6 January 2025 confirmed that the governor general of Canada had accepted his request to prorogue Parliament—a procedural move that temporarily halts parliamentary proceedings without dissolving the legislature. While prorogation is often used as a means to manage political crises, it serves a practical purpose here: providing time for the Liberal Party to select a new leader and for Parliament to pause before crucial votes are scheduled in the coming months.
Trudeau’s departure from the political stage leaves the Liberal Party in an uncertain position, with no clear successor emerging at the moment. The question on everyone’s mind is: Who will succeed him, and how will the party handle the looming federal election, expected before October? As the Canadian political scene braces for change, several key issues and potential scenarios are worth examining to understand the impact of Trudeau’s resignation on the future of the country.
Trudeau’s Political Legacy
Justin Trudeau’s tenure as prime minister has been a tumultuous yet transformative period for Canada. When he first assumed power in 2015, he presented himself as a political savior, ushering in a wave of optimism and progressive policies. Under his leadership, the Liberal Party reclaimed its dominance in Canadian politics, defeating Stephen Harper’s Conservative government after nearly a decade of Conservative rule. His early years in office were marked by ambitious promises: a more inclusive and just society, reconciliation with Indigenous communities, gender equality, and economic growth fueled by progressive tax policies.
One of his most significant achievements was the legalization of cannabis in 2018, a move that marked Canada as the first G7 country to do so. His government also championed climate action, with initiatives like the carbon tax and investments in clean energy. Trudeau’s foreign policy was characterized by a commitment to multilateralism, advocating for international trade agreements such as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and positioning Canada as a defender of liberal democratic values on the world stage.
However, despite these successes, Trudeau’s leadership was not without its challenges. His time in office was marked by a series of controversies that tarnished his reputation, including the SNC-Lavalin scandal in 2019 and the “blackface” incidents that surfaced during the 2019 election campaign. Both events sparked significant backlash, leading to questions about his sincerity in advocating for transparency and accountability. While Trudeau managed to hold onto power, the trust of many Canadians eroded over time, particularly as his government struggled to manage crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, and the cost of living.
By the time of his resignation, Trudeau’s popularity had significantly waned. Polls showed that the Liberal Party was losing ground to the opposition Conservative Party, and calls for his departure had grown louder. The announcement of his resignation, while expected, nonetheless signals the end of an era—a time when Trudeau’s youthful image and progressive agenda defined the national political discourse.
The Immediate Aftermath: What Happens Next?
Trudeau’s resignation triggers a series of critical events and questions that will shape the political landscape in Canada for the foreseeable future. The most pressing concern is the leadership of the Liberal Party. Trudeau has pledged to remain in office until a new leader is selected, which will provide the party with a transitional period to manage the succession process.
One of the key decisions to be made in the coming months will be the method of selecting a new leader. Trudeau has promised that the process will be “robust, nationwide, competitive,” and that Canadians will have the opportunity to participate in the selection process. While the specifics of this process remain unclear, the leadership race will likely be a key event in the months ahead. In typical situations, leadership contests in Canada’s federal parties involve months of campaigning, debates, and a formal leadership convention where delegates cast their votes to choose the new leader.
However, the urgency surrounding this leadership change means that the Liberal Party may face pressure to accelerate the process. Trudeau’s prorogation of Parliament until March 24, 2025, just days before the scheduled vote on supply—a key vote necessary to ensure government operations—may give the party time to finalize its leadership selection. Yet, with so little clarity on how the next leader will be chosen, there is still uncertainty about who will lead the party into the upcoming federal election.
Who Will Succeed Trudeau?
The question of who will succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party is a crucial one, and several high-profile figures have emerged as potential candidates. The most discussed names include Chrystia Freeland, the current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Anita Anand, the Minister of Transport, and Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and a well-respected figure on the international financial stage.
Freeland, who has played a prominent role in the Trudeau government’s handling of the economy, is seen by many as the most likely candidate to take over. As one of Trudeau’s closest allies, Freeland’s experience in both foreign policy and domestic governance has made her a standout figure within the party. Her leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in terms of economic recovery and managing financial support programs, has bolstered her credentials. However, Freeland also faces challenges, including her association with some of the controversies that have surrounded the Trudeau government.
Anita Anand, currently the Minister of Transport, is another potential candidate. Anand has earned praise for her management of Canada’s vaccine distribution program during the early days of the pandemic and is regarded as a strong and pragmatic leader. Her background in law and public policy, combined with her experience in both the private and public sectors, could position her as a credible leader for the Liberal Party.
Mark Carney, although not currently a member of Parliament, is another figure whose name has been floated as a potential leader. Carney’s global stature and experience as the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England give him significant political and economic credibility. His candidacy, however, would likely be seen as a break from the traditional political establishment, and his ability to connect with everyday Canadians could be a key factor in determining his success.
Despite these potential leaders, there is no clear frontrunner as of yet. The outcome of the leadership race will depend not only on the candidates’ political platforms but also on how they navigate the challenges facing the Liberal Party in the wake of Trudeau’s departure.
The Looming Federal Election
With Trudeau’s resignation, the political focus shifts to the upcoming federal election, which must occur by October 2025. The Conservative Party, currently the official opposition, is riding high in the polls, holding a double-digit lead over the Liberals. The prospect of an election under a new Liberal leader presents both an opportunity and a challenge for the party. If the leadership transition is seen as smooth and the new leader can unite the party, there may be a chance to stem the growing popularity of the Conservatives.
However, the opposition Conservatives have been pushing hard for an early election, attempting to trigger a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons. If the government loses a confidence motion, it is expected to either resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a federal election. The Liberals, with only a slim majority in the House of Commons, are vulnerable to a no-confidence motion. They will need the support of members of other parties to maintain their standing and delay an election until the leadership race is concluded.
The outcome of the next election remains uncertain. While the Conservatives are leading in the polls, the political landscape can shift rapidly in Canada. The success of the Liberal Party in the coming months will depend largely on how well it manages the leadership transition and how effectively it positions itself to counter the Conservatives’ momentum.
Conclusion
Justin Trudeau’s resignation represents a significant turning point in Canadian politics. His departure as both prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party ends an era defined by progressive reforms, global leadership, and political controversies. As the Liberal Party enters a period of uncertainty, the race to find a new leader will be crucial to its future success. With a federal election looming and the Conservatives in a strong position, the coming months will be pivotal in determining the direction of Canadian politics. While the party faces many challenges, it also has the opportunity to rebuild and redefine itself under new leadership. The question now is not only who will lead but how they will address the pressing issues facing Canadians in an increasingly polarized and uncertain political climate.
– Syed Raiyan Amir is a Senior Research Associate at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA).