After 13 years of civil war, Syria stands at a turning point. On Sunday, December 8, reports emerged that President Bashar al-Assad had fled Damascus, marking a dramatic culmination to a decade-long conflict. Rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions, have seized control of the capital, ushering in a new chapter for a nation that has endured devastation, displacement, and death on an unprecedented scale.
A Rapid Advance
The swift fall of Damascus caps a 12-day offensive that began in the northwest. On November 27, HTS announced a major campaign aimed at “deterring aggression” by government forces and allied militias. Beginning in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, the rebels rapidly gained ground, capturing Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and advancing southward along the highway to Damascus. The Syrian military, weakened by years of war and abandoned by key allies preoccupied with other conflicts, crumbled under the assault.
Damascus, long considered a stronghold of Assad’s regime, was breached in the early hours of Sunday. Rebel forces entered the city with minimal resistance, releasing detainees from the notorious Saydanaya prison and declaring Assad’s flight. “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled,” HTS announced. “After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny… we announce today the end of this dark period and the start of a new era for Syria”.
Assad’s Departure and Political Uncertainty
The exact whereabouts of President Assad remain unknown. Reports suggest that he fled Damascus hours before the rebels arrived. Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, in a televised address, declared his willingness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people, signaling an attempt to preserve continuity in governance amid the chaos.
This announcement reflects the uncertainty surrounding Syria’s immediate future. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani has called for the establishment of a government “based on institutions and a council chosen by the people.” However, the complexities of rebel coalitions, international interests, and regional rivalries make the path forward anything but clear.
Roots of the Conflict
Syria’s descent into war began in 2011 with peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms and an end to corruption. Inspired by the Arab Spring, these demonstrations were met with brutal crackdowns by Assad’s regime, igniting a full-scale civil war. The conflict quickly escalated, drawing in regional and global powers.
Russia and Iran provided critical military and financial support to Assad, while the United States and its allies backed opposition groups, including the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Islamist groups like HTS and the Islamic State (IS) exploited the chaos to assert their influence, further complicating the war.
Over the years, the toll has been staggering: more than 500,000 people killed and 12 million displaced, with half of the displaced seeking refuge abroad. Cities were reduced to rubble, and communities were torn apart.
The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
HTS, the group leading the recent offensive, has undergone significant transformations since its founding. Initially established in 2012 as the al-Nusra Front, the group pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and became known for its ruthless effectiveness on the battlefield.
In 2016, al-Nusra severed ties with al-Qaeda and rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham after merging with other factions. Despite the rebranding, the UN, US, and other nations continue to regard HTS as a terrorist organization. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, remains on the US’s most-wanted list, with a $10 million reward for his capture.
HTS consolidated power in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing rival factions, including cells linked to al-Qaeda and IS. The group established the Syrian Salvation Government to administer its territories according to Islamic law. Jawlani, in a recent CNN interview, reaffirmed his commitment to overthrowing Assad and establishing a new government chosen by the people.
The Turning Point
For years, Syria’s conflict appeared to be winding down, with Assad regaining control over most of the country by 2019. This was achieved with significant assistance from Russia, Iran, and Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah. However, large swathes of northern and eastern Syria remained outside government control, held by the SDF and rebel groups.
The turning point came as Assad’s regime faced mounting challenges. Years of war had left the government financially and militarily drained. Sanctions further crippled the economy, and corruption eroded public trust. Meanwhile, Assad’s allies faced distractions on multiple fronts.
Russia, a key backer, became preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine, diverting resources and attention away from Syria. Iran and Hezbollah, instrumental in Assad’s earlier victories, suffered setbacks due to Israeli airstrikes targeting supply lines and military infrastructure.
Sensing an opportunity, HTS launched its offensive, exploiting the regime’s vulnerabilities and the absence of effective support from its allies.
The Offensive’s Progress
HTS and allied factions achieved rapid victories, starting with the capture of Aleppo on November 30. Government forces offered little resistance, retreating as the rebels advanced. From Aleppo, the rebels moved south, capturing Hama, Homs, and other key cities along the highway to Damascus.
Simultaneously, rebel factions in southern Syria, including groups in Deraa and Suweida, launched coordinated attacks, reaching the outskirts of Damascus within days. The government’s defensive lines collapsed under the pressure, leaving the capital exposed.
The fall of Homs and Hama highlighted the regime’s weakening grip. Despite reinforcements from Iran-backed militias and intensified airstrikes by Russian warplanes, government forces were unable to hold their ground.
What’s Next for Syria?
The rebels’ victory raises numerous questions about Syria’s future. The HTS-led coalition now controls significant territory, including the capital, but governing a fractured and war-torn nation poses immense challenges.
International reactions will be critical in shaping the post-Assad era. Countries like Turkey, which has supported rebel factions, may play a key role in facilitating a political transition. However, HTS’s extremist roots and its designation as a terrorist organization by Western powers complicate the prospects for international recognition and support.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis remains dire. Millions of Syrians are displaced, both internally and abroad, and rebuilding the country will require substantial international aid and cooperation. Ensuring security and stability will be paramount to preventing a resurgence of violence.
A New Era or Another Chapter of Conflict?
The fall of Damascus and Assad’s flight mark a historic moment for Syria, ending decades of Baathist rule and opening the door to new possibilities. However, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty.
For many Syrians, the hope of peace and rebuilding is tempered by the knowledge that the forces now in power bring their own challenges. HTS’s history and ideology raise concerns about the inclusivity and democratic nature of any new government. The involvement of various rebel factions, each with its own agenda, adds to the complexity.
As Syrians and the international community watch events unfold, one thing is clear: the end of Assad’s reign is not the end of Syria’s struggles. The coming months and years will determine whether this turning point leads to lasting peace or simply another chapter in the nation’s turbulent history. In the words of one Syrian activist, “We have ended one tyranny, but the fight for freedom and justice has just begun”.
– Syed Raiyan Amir is a Senior Research Associate at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA).