The recent North Korean announcement of an open policy on the building of nuclear weapons has pushed the provocative button in an already hostile environment. This announcement not only deepens anxiety concerning the goals of Kim Jong Un’s regime but also raises a fundamental question about the safety and stability of the world. As Pyongyang enters a new phase in which the emphasis is on military power and a non-diplomatic approach, the stakes are much higher than in the Korean Peninsula. The potential of an increased nuclear capability poses risks of altering regional balance and stability and leads to an arms race and noncooperation in a non-proliferation regime. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the factors that may have prompted North Korea to take such a step and the implications of this situation for international security. First, the brief discusses how North Korea is advancing its nuclear arsenal and missile technology, aiming for military dominance in response to perceived threats. Then the brief shifts its focus to North Korea’s nuclear developments, which risk destabilizing regional security and sparking an arms race, threatening global peace. Lastly, the brief analyzes how the U.S. and allies are countering North Korea’s aggression with sanctions and military drills while emphasizing the need for multilateral diplomacy to prevent further escalation.
Among the world’s most militaristic nations is North Korea. Their ‘military first’ doctrine, or Songun, views the military as the most important institution in North Korean society and a means of resolving social, economic, and political issues. This mentality, together with President Kim Jong-un’s North Korea’s increasingly assertive military posture and developments in nuclear and missile capabilities, have turned the regime from a local threat to peace and stability to a major menace to international security.
North Korea has successfully developed nuclear warheads to fit long-range ballistic missiles. The North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has threatened to ‘tenfold’ the number of nuclear weapons in North Korea, citing the need to protect the nation from so-called hostile forces. In his speech on the occasion of the 76th anniversary of the government’s founding on September 10, 2024, Kim reiterated that a growing external pressure is forcing North Korea to develop its military power. He claimed that the country will increase efforts to guarantee the preparedness of all its armed services, including nuclear, for war. This release comes close to the heels of the North Koreans’ unveiling of a new system, presumably to fire even more capable intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The quantity of nuclear weapons that North Korea has developed or used is kept a secret by the country. Because of this, analysts can only make estimates about how many nuclear weapons North Korea has. The estimates need to advance in sophistication in line with North Korea’s increasing ability to produce nuclear weapons. However, there are significant uncertainties associated with all of these estimations because of the incomplete knowledge regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons production complex. These projections rely on an assessment of North Korea’s production of weapon-grade uranium (WGU), another closely guarded secret, and plutonium. Commercial satellite observations, previous North Korean declarations, reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), intelligence agency reporting, reports from on-site visits and interviews, and a wealth of information regarding North Korea’s procurement for its key nuclear activities—uranium enrichment and plutonium production—can all be used to evaluate the production of these essential materials.
Concerns about Kim Jong Un’s nuclear program have intensified all over the world as he has displayed a desire to deploy battlefield nuclear weapons along the North’s border with South Korea and ordered his military to respond with preemptive nuclear attacks if it deems the leadership as under threat. Most people believe that Kim is trying to persuade the United States to acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear state and lift the restrictions that the United States has placed on the country due to its nuclear program by stepping up its weapons testing and threats. North Korea might try to escalate tensions during an election year in the US. Kim has been developing weapons more quickly lately by taking advantage of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine as a diversion. As a result, the US, South Korea, and Japan have increased the scope of their joint military drills and improved their nuclear deterrence plans, which are centered on key US military capabilities.
North Korea has continued to test missiles of various ranges and capabilities. Analysts report that these tests appear to have advanced the reliability and precision of Korea’s missile forces and improved the country’s ability to defeat regional missile defense systems. In 2022, North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time since 2017. ICBMs can strike targets over significant distances, raising fears that North Korea is now able to target previously unreachable areas such as the US homeland. In 2023, these ICBM tests have continued alongside a record number of other missile tests, including what North Korea called a simulated tactical nuclear attack on the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea). North Korea has also unveiled a submarine reportedly capable of launching nuclear weapons. In addition, there are fears that North Korea is developing its chemical weapons capabilities.
One of the main players in the efforts to stop North Korea’s military aggression has been the United States and its allies. The USA has pursued a deterrence strategy with its international allies in an effort to stop North Korea’s weapons development and convince it to give up its nuclear ambitions. This strategy primarily consists of diplomatic efforts paired with bilateral and multilateral sanctions, as will be discussed below. As part of the Washington Declaration in April 2023, the US and the Republic of Korea endorsed this deterrence strategy. Nonetheless, North Korea has rejected or disregarded efforts by the US and the Republic of Korea to continue talks ever since the latter’s nuclear weapons development negotiations broke down in 2019. In 2022, President Kim Jong-un declared that North Korea would never denuclearize. After North Korea launched a spy satellite in November 2023, the Republic of Korea withdrew from the Comprehensive Military Agreement, which it had signed with the North in 2018 intending to reduce military tensions. Now that the agreement has been entirely suspended, North Korea has promised to send more powerful troops and equipment to the border.
The implications of North Korea’s declared policy to build nuclear weapons “at any cost” are of grave concern. As the regime presses on with its aggressive strategies, there is a growing demand for the global society to find a collective and coherent approach to respond to the emerging consequences of the assertive nuclear programs. Therefore, one is compelled to take diplomacy to the next level; the emphasis on diplomacy for containing Pyongyang must be advanced, and diplomacy in the form of multilateralism must be applied. If this threat is not well dealt with, there is potential for a dramatic worsening of military threats, and this outcome could lead to the worst situation as far as world stability is concerned.
– Tahia Afra Jannati is a Research Intern at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA).