Many factors, including economic opportunities, political instability, environmental changes, and social networks have historically driven Africa’s migration. The trends we see in African migration are shaped by global challenges and internal developments within African countries and external influences from global economic and political changes. Understanding the trends in African migration is crucial for policymakers to properly address the challenges presented by migration in Africa. This brief looks at the recent trends in migration in Africa and analyzes the factors driving the trends.
In Africa, migration occurs both internally and externally, which takes place both within and outside of the continent. Within the region, most foreign migration takes place. In comparison to 2015, when about 18 million Africans lived outside of their nation of origin but still within the region, the number of Africans living abroad increased significantly to about 21 million by 2020. During the same time, the number of Africans residing in various regions outside Africa increased as well, rising from over 17 million in 2015 to over 19.5 million in 2020. Forced displacement has increased due to ongoing conflicts around the continent. Furthermore, the return to authoritarian governance in many African countries has limited basic human rights this suppression has also led to a rise in the number of displaced people in and from Africa. Young migrants increase in number when they are forced to relocate to urban regions from rural areas within their countries and often outside Africa, in search of better employment and overall life opportunities.
The 2023 fighting between military factions in Sudan resulted in an extra 6.1 million people being displaced across borders. This contributes to the population shifts caused by conflicts in several countries, including Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic. By the middle of the century, up to 10% of all cross-border migration from Africa is expected to be caused by climate change. Storms, droughts, and flooding that are more severe are the main causes of this. Sub-Saharan Africa has seen a 34% decrease in agricultural production increase since 1961 due to climate change, which has further exacerbated the region’s recently unmatched levels of food insecurity. Due to the effects of climate change, Southern Africa is predicted to experience the greatest rise in cross-border movement in Africa; by 2050, between 200,000 and 800,000 individuals may relocate to a neighboring nation.
In Africa, internal migration is the most common, primarily from rural to urban areas. Global warming is making it increasingly difficult for rural communities to maintain sustainable livelihoods, which might drive a growing number of migrants, between 70 and 110 million people, to migrate permanently. As urban migrants became a more popular option for better employment opportunities, migration from rural areas to cities may eventually lead to international migration. 43 million Africans reside abroad with documentation, and most of them are legally recognized residents. Unknown numbers of African migrants have turned to unauthorized or covert immigration routes. Irregular movement makes migrants more vulnerable to threats to their safety and gives criminal groups more license to take advantage of their lack of legal status and exploit the migrants to secure their illegal immoral personal gains.
According to a joint report by the African Union and IOM UN Migration, African nations welcomed 25.4 million foreign migrants in 2020, a 62% rise from 1990. Eighty-two percent of these were migrants from Africa, although migration has increased by 62% in Africa since 1990, the continent’s population has surged by 113%. 77% of migrants from Africa were of working age in 2019 and were more likely than natives to be employed. The bulk of migrant laborers work in the services industry and usually have just a basic or very basic education.
Climate change, increasing young populations and overall population, repressive governments, violence, and limited economic opportunities have been the main causes of the new migration flows over the past few years. Most of these migrants, who are primarily young are still on the continent and are looking for work in big cities. Others go outside of the African continent in search of employment, mostly in the Middle East and Europe, even though the proportion of African migrants in those regions is only 6.6% and 8.2%, respectively.
African migration is steadily increasing due to a combination of structural and governance issues. If current trends continue, cross-border migration from Africa is expected to reach 11–12 million individuals by 2050. Africa still has the lowest average per capita income in the world. In Sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 35% of people live in poverty, placing a great deal of pressure on household members who earn a living to find work to meet their necessities. The majority of migration that is not caused by conflict follows regional seasonal economic possibilities. Between 2010 and now, intra-African migration has increased by 44%. The majority of cyclical migration within the SADC (Southern African Development Community) area ends in South Africa, which is a vibrant economy.
On the African continent, there are three primary paths for irregular migration. Every year, hundreds of thousands of people—mostly from Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia—travel the Eastern Route, which is regarded as one of the busiest and riskiest migratory corridors in the world. In 2023, some 300,000 migrants departed Ethiopia for the coasts of Djibouti and Somalia through this corridor. During this time, about 93,500 migrants from the Horn of Africa came to Yemen, representing a 26% increase from the previous year. An upsurge in migration is anticipated along this route in 2024. The Southern Route travels via Kenya and Tanzania along Africa’s east coast to reach South Africa. The Southern Route was anticipated to be used by 65,000 people in 2023; this figure is projected to rise to 65,000 by 2024.
The routes leading to Europe via the Mediterranean and Atlantic have been significant as a channel of massive African migration to Europe. According to Frontex, over the past 15 years, 1.37 million intercepted border crossings (IBCs) of African citizens have been created. At the EU’s request, North African nations have tried to remove migrants from the coastal cities in an effort to discourage people from crossing the Mediterranean. Occasionally, these measures have been extremely harsh; for example, the Tunisian government deported and left hundreds of migrants in the Libyan border’s desert. Thousands of migrants were forcibly deported into Chad, Egypt, Niger, Sudan, and Tunisia without due process after raids on their homes and places of employment occurred in Libya.
The trends of migration in Africa more or less have remained the same in the last few years. But it does bring out a picture of an evolving landscape in Africa. While factors such as economic disparities, climate change, and political instability continue to shape migration in the region, new factors like technological advancements and healthcare systems are increasingly becoming influential. These trends highlight the need for more time-appropriate, effective, comprehensive, and adaptive migration policies considering the unique and multifaceted nature of migration in Africa. By analyzing the trends of migration, African countries can better manage migration flows protecting their economic growth, and social cohesion and promoting sustainable development in the continent.
– Tahia Afra Jannati is a Research Intern at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA).